A World Cup Built on Sand
WILSY's brief guide to a tournament that should never have happened
All you need to overlook in order to get really excited about this year’s World Cup, which begins Sunday in Qatar, is the asinine logic of dropping soccer’s premier tournament into the middle of the European club calendar, the near-Biblical levels of corruption that made this necessary and the deaths of untold thousands of migrant workers — at least 6,500 at last count — who were brought in by the Qataris to build the stadia.
If you can get past all that, what a feast of soccer there is in store!
This column shares the sentiments of John Oliver, who has described this World Cup, the fruit of FIFA’s rotted tree, as a monumental travesty that … I will have to watch anyway. I may go to Hell for it (assuming Hell is not Qatar), but there’s no way I can pass up the last opportunity to see Lionel Messi possibly lift the trophy. Imagine it’s 1969, Americans are about to land a metal Dixie Cup on the Moon, and you’re like, Yeah, but, you know, Vietnam, man. You can march against the war tomorrow.
Still, there should be no mistaking what FIFA has done here. By awarding this World Cup to Qatar, soccer’s governing body has assisted the “sportswashing” program of a serial human-rights offender which still tolerates a modern form of human bondage but never in no way homosexuality, because, you know, that would be immoral. “FIFA Celebrates Pride” — just not enough to shun the nations that ban it. In May, Qatar jailed three men for life for protesting a new election law. It is illegal in Qatar to even criticize the Emir.
It is also illegal to drink alcohol or be drunk in public, England.
While we avert our collective gaze, most of soccer’s elite will be competing in the world’s most-watched sporting event. Your first thought is: Oh, is it summer already? Well, no. Although the World Cup is ordinarily a summer tournament, it is also ordinarily awarded to countries that don’t reach 120°F in July. But FIFA officials are skilled at corruption, not foresight. One person who predicted precisely this scenario was Francis Bacon, who in 1625 wrote, "If the hill will not come to Mahomet, Mahomet will go to the hill.” And now, behold, there is a World Cup in mid-winter.
It would be a minor shock if neither Messi’s Argentina nor Brazil wins this year. Brazil is loaded top to bottom with world-class talent — they had to leave world-class talent behind — and Argentina is fun, tenacious, organized and hasn’t lost a game since 2019. Defending champion France is another favorite. The team features maybe two of the five best attackers in the game — striker Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappé — and a wealth of talent just about everywhere else on the pitch. But you just never know with France. No favorite, with the possible exception of Netherlands, has a richer history of internal turmoil and tournament calamity than the French. The last time France defended a World Cup title, in 2002, they came dead last.
Personally, I can’t really see past Brazil. If you tried to assemble the ideal side for a month-long international tournament, it would look a lot like this team: flair up top, tactical prowess in midfield, experience at the back. Brazil’s coach, Tite, also has Brazil playing like Brazil again — fizzy and clever — after a long period where they mostly tried to play like Serbia. The one big question is whether Thiago Silva, at 38, is too old to lead the defense. But Brazil has two other very capable center-backs in Marquinhos of PSG and Éder Militão of Real Madrid. Dani Alves has also been included in the squad, mysteriously. Alves is one of the greatest right-backs in the history of the game, but he is 39 years old and has had a lousy season with his club team in Mexico. He’s there for team morale, I suspect.
PSG forward Neymar is Brazil’s undisputed star. You could probably start any combination of Brazil’s nine attackers — Vinícius Júnior, at 22, is already regarded as one of the two or three best wingers in the world — and murder just about any defense in the tournament. But Neymar is the talisman, a mercurial, free-floating presence in attack who tends to dictate Brazil’s game. Because Neymar is emotional and often reactive, you can expect opponents to take him out as often as possible, hoping he’ll lose his composure. When Neymar melts down, so does Brazil.
Then there’s Argentina. For at least a decade, this team was more or less just Messi and ten others. Although Argentina has always had top players in the major European leagues, these same figures chronically underperformed at the international level, when their job was to support Messi’s genius. It was still just about enough. During one stretch beginning with the 2014 World Cup, Argentina, led by Messi, reached three straight major tournament finals, all of which they lost. The jinx finally lifted with the arrival of coach Lionel Scaloni in 2018. Argentina is now back at the top, not just in reputation but performance, and in 2021 finally won the elusive Copa America title, beating Brazil in the final.
They are deadly in attack. Messi still pulls the strings, but from a deeper playmaking position, while the front line, led by ruthless goal-poachers such as Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez, is just a step too quick for most defenses. Argentina’s weakness is at the back. Starting center-back Nicolás Otamendi, now 34, was slow even in his prime; Lisandro Martínez is young and feisty but too short; and none of the team’s wide fullbacks are top class. But if recent form is anything to go by, opponents will likely have too much on their hands with Argentina’s highly skilled attacking corps to do much damage in the other half.
Just a little bit about the U.S. They missed the last World Cup, in 2018, and come to this one with the youngest team (by average age) in the tournament. Not much is expected of them — their group also includes England, Wales and Iran — and making it to the second round probably ought to count as a victory. Matt Turner, who plays his club soccer with Arsenal, has turned into a surprisingly good goalkeeper, but overall the defense is second-rate. Their strengths — and these are real strengths, by the way — are in the center of midfield and on the wings. Most of the attention is paid to Christian Pulisic, who many consider the U.S.’s best player, but forwards such as Tim Weah, Gio Reyna and Brenden Aaronson are pretty dangerous. Aaronson and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams, who are teammates at Leeds United in the Premier League, are both relentless pests and horrible to play against. (Adams has the second-most tackles in the league this season.) If the team is going to get anywhere, Weston McKennie, an impossibly agile player who runs the midfield, will need to be fit. He’s been out injured in recent weeks.
My darkhorses:
Denmark. Everyone loves the Danes. They’re a surprisingly dynamic team, and always very well-organized. Manchester United’s Christian Eriksen is the heartbeat of the side, and can deliver a cross better than just about any other player on the planet. But the player to watch for is Jesper Lindstrom, a robust and exciting attacking midfielder who plays for Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany. Only 22, he could be one of the break-out players of the tournament.
Uruguay. I dunno. Many of the pundits have Uruguay down as one of the tournament’s likely disappointments. But La Celeste, as they are known, are always gritty as hell — I’m not sure I’ve seen a match Uruguay has lost that did not devolve into shoving and fisticuffs — and the World Cup is part of the national mythology. (The team has won it twice, though long ago.) They have some great players: Federico Valverde, a midfielder who plays for Real Madrid, has been arguably the best player in Spain’s La Liga this season, and striker Darwin Núñez is a serious handful. He’s still finding his feet at Liverpool FC, but he’s a consensus future superstar and no one will enjoy playing against him.
Canada. Okay, look. Canada is not going to win this tournament. In fact, it will be a small miracle if the Canadians make it out of their group. (They have not even been to a World Cup since 1982.) But Canada was the surprise of Concacaf (North and Central American) qualifying — topping the standings — and everyone plays his role in the team to perfection. They also have probably the world’s best left-back in Alphonso Davies, who can take apart teams with his speed. Strikers Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are very underrated, and I’m a big fan of Tajon Buchanan, a fast and artful winger who plays his soccer alongside Larin for Club Brugge in Belgium. Canada’s secret weapon, though, is the coach: John Herdman took a perennial laughingstock, loaded up with MLS squad players and forgotten journeymen (Junior Hoilett?), and turned them into the best team in the region.
Look, stranger things have happened. For instance, a major sporting event that draws millions of visitors got awarded to a small, repressive desert emirate with just one usable stadium (at the time), with an expat worker population that outnumbers the citizenry by about nine-to-one.
Hm. Maybe the U.S. has a shot, after all.